Updated: 2025-08-11
Fertility rates are declining across most nations due to a complex interplay of economic, social, cultural, and potentially biological factors. According to World Bank data, global fertility rates have fallen dramatically from over 5 births per woman in the 1960s to approximately 2.3 today, with many developed nations now well below the replacement rate of 2.1 [1].
The economics of childrearing have fundamentally shifted in modern societies. The IMF analysis identifies several key economic drivers: increased female labor force participation, rising education levels (particularly for women), urbanization, and the changing economic value of children [2]. In agricultural societies, children were economic assets who could contribute to family labor, but in modern economies, they represent significant financial costs without direct economic returns.
Rising costs of childcare, education, and housing make raising children increasingly expensive. McKinsey Global Institute reports that these economic pressures, combined with greater career opportunities for women, lead many to delay or forgo childbearing [3]. The opportunity cost of having children—particularly for educated women who must often pause or sacrifice careers—has grown substantially.
Cultural changes play a significant role in declining fertility. The Lancet study projects that improved access to contraception and female education will continue driving fertility declines, with 183 of 195 countries expected to have below-replacement fertility by 2100 [4].
Modern values emphasizing individual fulfillment, career achievement, and personal freedom often conflict with the demands of parenthood. Some observers point to “therapy culture” and changing relationship patterns, suggesting that younger generations’ focus on self-actualization and psychological well-being may contribute to lower birth rates [5]. Additionally, changing gender roles and expectations have transformed traditional family structures without necessarily creating new models that support higher fertility.
Women increasingly delay childbearing to pursue education and establish careers, but this delay has biological consequences. First births in many developed countries now commonly occur after age 30, when natural fertility begins declining. This creates a “fertility trap” where women who want children later face greater difficulty conceiving [6].
Some researchers suggest potential biological factors may also be at play, including declining sperm counts and other reproductive health issues, though the evidence remains debated [7]. Environmental factors, endocrine disruptors, and lifestyle changes may contribute to reduced fertility at the population level.
Government policies significantly influence fertility decisions. Countries with robust family support systems—including parental leave, subsidized childcare, and child allowances—tend to have somewhat higher (though still below-replacement) fertility rates. The lack of such support in countries like the United States may exacerbate fertility declines [8].
Workplace cultures that penalize parenthood, particularly motherhood, through limited flexibility, inadequate leave policies, or career advancement barriers, further discourage childbearing [9].
While fertility decline is nearly universal, patterns vary significantly. Sub-Saharan Africa maintains higher fertility rates, though these are also declining. East Asian countries like South Korea and Japan face particularly severe fertility crises, with rates below 1.5 births per woman [10]. These variations reflect different stages of demographic transition, cultural factors, and policy responses.
The fertility decline has profound implications for economic growth, social security systems, and geopolitical power dynamics. Some analysts warn of a “demographic winter” with aging populations, shrinking workforces, and unsustainable dependency ratios [11]. Others argue that technological advancement and productivity gains could offset population decline, or that smaller populations might be environmentally beneficial [12].
The crisis may be more severe than commonly understood—once fertility falls below replacement for extended periods, it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse due to both cultural normalization of small families and the mathematics of population momentum [13].
[1] World Bank - Fertility rate, total (births per woman) - Provides comprehensive global fertility data showing declining trends across regions. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
[2] IMF Finance & Development - The New Economics of Fertility - Analyzes economic factors driving fertility decline, emphasizing women’s education and labor force participation. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/new-economics-of-fertility-doepke-hannusch-kindermann-tertilt
[3] McKinsey Global Institute - Dependency and Depopulation? - Examines economic consequences of demographic shifts and policy responses. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/dependency-and-depopulation-confronting-the-consequences-of-a-new-demographic-reality
[4] The Lancet - Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios - Comprehensive forecasting study projecting global fertility trends through 2100. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2930677-2/fulltext
[5] The New York Times - There’s a Link Between Therapy Culture and Childlessness - Argues that modern therapeutic culture may contribute to declining fertility. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/opinion/therapy-estrangement-childless-millennials.html
[6] NC State CALS News - You Decide: Should We Worry About the Declining Birth Rate? - Balanced perspective on fertility decline concerns. https://cals.ncsu.edu/news/you-decide-should-we-worry-about-the-declining-birth-rate/
[7] Frontiers in Reproductive Health - What Is Driving the Global Decline of Human Fertility? - Advocates for multidisciplinary approach including potential biological factors. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11079147/
[8] The Hill - JD Vance, Elon Musk Are Right About Falling Birth Rates - Agrees with concerns about fertility decline but critiques proposed solutions. https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/5140744-genetics-fertility-musk-vance-pronatalist/
[9] Philip Skogsberg Substack - Where Have All The Babies Gone - Analyzes cultural and economic factors behind fertility decline. https://philipskogsberg.substack.com/p/where-have-all-the-babies-gone
[10] University of Pennsylvania - Demographic Trends Presentation - Academic analysis of global demographic patterns. https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf
[11] The Atlantic - The Birth-Rate Crisis Isn’t as Bad as You’ve Heard—It’s Worse - Argues the fertility crisis is more severe than commonly understood. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/06/birth-rate-population-decline/683333/
[12] Noah Smith - The dawn of the posthuman age - Explores technological solutions and adaptations to population decline. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-dawn-of-the-posthuman-age
[13] Pew Research Center - Rising Share of U.S. Adults Are Living Without a Spouse or Partner - Documents changing relationship patterns affecting fertility. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/10/05/rising-share-of-u-s-adults-are-living-without-a-spouse-or-partner/
Short answer: As countries get richer, safer, and more urban, people marry and have children later; women’s education and employment rise; effective contraception gives more control; and the direct and opportunity costs of raising children increase. These forces lower desired family size and postpone births, and in many places institutions haven’t adapted to dual-earner families, further suppressing childbearing. Biological constraints from later childbearing and possible environmental factors add to the decline, but most of the trend is driven by social and economic change, not genetics or a single cultural fad [1][2][3][4][5][8].
What’s happening
Why fertility rates are falling
1) Socioeconomic development changes the calculus of family size
2) Later partnering and delayed childbearing
3) Contraception and reproductive autonomy
4) Costs, uncertainty, and policy environments
5) Health and biological factors
6) Cultural change
Common misconceptions
Bottom line Fertility is falling in most nations because modern development changes both the desire and feasibility of having (many) children: people start families later, invest more per child, face higher and more uncertain costs, and have the tools to avoid unintended births. Institutional lag and affordability constraints amplify these choices, while biological factors from later childbearing add a smaller, compounding effect [1][2][3][4][5].
Sources 1) World Bank – Fertility rate, total (births per woman). Shows the long-run global decline in TFR from ~5 to ~2.3 and country-by-country trends. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
2) The Lancet (GBD forecasting analysis). Projects that most countries will be below replacement by 2050–2100 and attributes much of the decline to increases in female education and met need for contraception; emphasizes structural, cross-country nature of the shift. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext
3) IMF Finance & Development – The New Economics of Fertility. Synthesizes evidence on opportunity costs, quality–quantity trade-offs, the “gender-equity” mismatch, and the role and limits of family policy in shaping fertility; discusses tempo vs quantum and desired vs realized fertility gaps. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/new-economics-of-fertility-doepke-hannusch-kindermann-tertilt
4) McKinsey Global Institute – Dependency and Depopulation? Discusses the economic consequences of aging and low fertility and highlights affordability constraints (housing, childcare), labor-market insecurity, and institutional adaptation as key context for sustained sub-replacement fertility. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/dependency-and-depopulation-confronting-the-consequences-of-a-new-demographic-reality
5) Frontiers in Reproductive Health – What Is Driving the Global Decline of Human Fertility? Reviews biomedical and environmental contributors (age-related infertility, obesity, endocrine disruptors); argues for multidisciplinary research and notes uncertainties about aggregate impact relative to socioeconomic drivers. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11079147/
6) The Atlantic – The Birth-Rate Crisis Isn’t as Bad as You’ve Heard—It’s Worse. Opinion arguing social isolation, dating-market challenges, and pessimism, combined with high costs, are pushing fertility down further than expected. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/06/birth-rate-population-decline/683333/
7) The New York Times – There’s a Link Between Therapy Culture and Childlessness. Opinion piece positing that therapy norms and family estrangement are contributing to childlessness among some millennials; reflects a cultural-psychological angle, debated and less causal than economic-demographic explanations. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/opinion/therapy-estrangement-childless-millennials.html
8) The Hill – JD Vance, Elon Musk Are Right About Falling Birth Rates — Here’s Where They Get It Wrong. Commentary criticizing genetic determinism and simplistic pronatalism; emphasizes social, economic, and policy determinants of fertility. https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/5140744-genetics-fertility-musk-vance-pronatalist/
9) Jesús Fernández-Villaverde – Slides (sas.upenn.edu). Academic lecture slides summarizing economic models of fertility, the quantity–quality trade-off, and timing (tempo) versus completed fertility (quantum) effects. https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf
Fertility rates are declining in most nations due to a complex and interconnected set of socioeconomic, economic, cultural, and biological factors [8]. According to World Bank data, the global total fertility rate (TFR)—the average number of births per woman—has fallen from nearly 5 in 1960 to 2.3 in 2021, with many countries now well below the replacement rate of 2.1 [2].
The primary drivers behind this global trend are rooted in socioeconomic development, particularly the empowerment of women.
Economic pressures in modern societies have fundamentally changed the incentives for having children.
Cultural and social norms have also shifted away from traditional, family-centric models.
Finally, while socioeconomic factors are dominant, biological and health-related issues also play a role.
In summary, falling fertility is not the result of a single cause but rather the outcome of a major societal transformation characterized by female empowerment, new economic realities, and evolving cultural values [3, 6, 8].
Fertility rates, defined as the average number of children born per woman, have been declining in most nations over the past several decades, dropping from a global average of about 5 births per woman in the 1960s to around 2.3 in recent years [2]. This trend is particularly pronounced in high-income countries, where rates often fall below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain population stability without immigration, but it is increasingly evident in middle- and low-income nations as well [3]. While the decline is not uniform—some regions like sub-Saharan Africa still have higher rates—the global pattern raises concerns about aging populations, economic strain, and societal shifts [5][10]. Explanations for this decline are multifaceted, involving economic, social, cultural, biological, and environmental factors. Below, I outline the primary reasons based on analyses from various sources, supported by data and expert perspectives.
A key driver of declining fertility is the evolving economic landscape, particularly the rising costs associated with child-rearing and shifts in labor markets. In many countries, the financial burden of housing, education, childcare, and healthcare has made having children less affordable, especially for younger generations facing stagnant wages and job insecurity [6][7]. For instance, women’s increased participation in the workforce—often linked to higher education levels—has led to delayed childbearing, as career demands compete with family responsibilities [6][12]. Economists argue that this creates a “fertility trap,” where couples postpone or forgo children to prioritize economic stability, resulting in fewer births overall [6].
Global data supports this: In high-income nations like South Korea and Italy, fertility rates have plummeted to around 0.8 and 1.2 births per woman, respectively, amid high living costs and limited family support policies [2][3]. The International Monetary Fund highlights how urbanization and the shift from agrarian economies reduce the economic value of large families, as children are no longer seen as essential labor or old-age security [6]. Additionally, economic uncertainty, such as recessions or pandemics, exacerbates this by encouraging further delays in family formation [5].
Social changes, including evolving norms around marriage, individualism, and gender roles, also contribute significantly. Many young adults are delaying marriage or opting out altogether, which correlates with lower fertility since most births occur within partnerships [8][11]. In the U.S. and Europe, for example, the rise of “therapy culture”—emphasizing personal mental health, self-actualization, and sometimes estrangement from family—has been linked to increased childlessness among millennials, as individuals prioritize emotional well-being over traditional family structures [4].
Cultural factors amplify this: In wealthier societies, there’s a growing emphasis on personal freedom, career fulfillment, and leisure, which can make parenthood seem like a sacrifice [9][11]. Substack analyses point to phenomena like the “childless cat lady” trope, reflecting broader societal attitudes where child-free lifestyles are normalized or even celebrated [11]. Migration to urban areas further erodes community support networks that once facilitated child-rearing, leading to isolation and higher perceived costs of parenthood [8]. Pronatalist advocates like Elon Musk and J.D. Vance argue for cultural incentives to reverse this, but critics note they overlook how these shifts are deeply embedded in modern individualism [1].
Emerging evidence suggests biological and environmental factors may play a role, though they are debated and require more research. Studies indicate a potential decline in sperm quality and count in men, possibly linked to endocrine-disrupting chemicals, pollution, obesity, and lifestyle factors like sedentary behavior [8]. For women, later childbearing increases risks of infertility, with average maternal age rising globally [3][8]. The Frontiers in Reproductive Health review calls for a multidisciplinary approach, noting that while socioeconomic factors dominate, biological mechanisms—such as hormonal disruptions from environmental toxins—could be contributing to involuntary childlessness [8].
Genetic perspectives, as discussed in pronatalist debates, suggest that inherited traits favoring smaller families might be selected for in modern societies, but this view is critiqued as oversimplifying complex social dynamics [1]. Overall, these factors are not the primary drivers but may compound economic and social pressures, especially in industrialized nations [1][8].
Inadequate government policies exacerbate the decline. Many countries lack robust support for families, such as paid parental leave, affordable childcare, or tax incentives, which could mitigate economic barriers [5][7]. For example, McKinsey’s analysis warns of “dependency crises” in aging societies like Japan and Germany, where low fertility leads to shrinking workforces, but notes that pro-family policies in places like France have somewhat buffered the drop [5]. The Lancet’s projections forecast that by 2100, 97% of countries will have fertility rates below replacement levels, underscoring the need for policy interventions to address root causes like gender inequality and work-life balance [3].
The decline is not monolithic; in some developing nations, improvements in education and access to contraception have intentionally lowered rates as part of demographic transitions [2][3]. However, in others, it’s an unintended consequence of rapid modernization [6]. Alarmist views, such as those in The Atlantic, argue the crisis is “worse than thought” due to accelerating drops post-COVID, potentially leading to economic stagnation and geopolitical shifts [10]. Optimists, like Noah Smith, frame it as the “dawn of the posthuman age,” where technology (e.g., AI and automation) could offset population declines [9]. NC State’s economic perspective questions whether we should worry, suggesting immigration and productivity gains might compensate [7].
In summary, declining fertility rates stem from a convergence of economic pressures, social individualism, potential biological factors, and policy gaps, with data showing a sustained global trend [2][3]. Addressing this requires holistic approaches, including better family supports and cultural shifts, to avoid long-term challenges like depopulation [5][10]. While some sources view this as a crisis demanding urgent action [1][10], others see it as an adaptive evolution in human society [9].
JD Vance, Elon Musk Are Right About Falling Birth Rates — Here’s Where They Get It Wrong – The Hill: Argues that pronatalists like Musk and Vance correctly identify declining birth rates as a problem but overemphasize genetics while ignoring socioeconomic factors. Link
Fertility rate, total (births per woman) – World Bank: Provides global data showing declining fertility trends, emphasizing economic and developmental influences. Link
Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study – The Lancet: Forecasts widespread sub-replacement fertility by 2100, driven by education, urbanization, and women’s empowerment. Link
There’s a Link Between Therapy Culture and Childlessness – The New York Times: Links rising childlessness to therapy-influenced individualism and family estrangement among younger generations. Link
Dependency and Depopulation? Confronting the Consequences of a New Demographic Reality – McKinsey Global Institute: Examines economic consequences of low fertility, advocating policy reforms to address aging populations. Link
The New Economics of Fertility – IMF Finance & Development: Explores how economic factors like costs, women’s labor participation, and urbanization drive fertility declines. Link
You Decide: Should We Worry About the Declining Birth Rate? – NC State CALS News: Weighs pros and cons of low birth rates, suggesting they may not be catastrophic if offset by immigration and innovation. Link
What Is Driving the Global Decline of Human Fertility? Need for a Multidisciplinary Approach to the Underlying Mechanisms – Frontiers in Reproductive Health: Calls for integrating biological, environmental, and social explanations, highlighting potential roles of pollutants and lifestyle. Link
The dawn of the posthuman age – Noah Smith: Views declining fertility as part of a technological shift toward a “posthuman” era, where AI could mitigate population issues. Link
The Birth-Rate Crisis Isn’t as Bad as You’ve Heard—It’s Worse – The Atlantic: Argues the fertility decline is accelerating and more severe than commonly perceived, with broad societal risks. Link
Where Have All The Babies Gone – Substack: Explores cultural and social reasons for childlessness, including changing norms and individualism. Link
Webpage – sas.upenn.edu: Economic slides discussing fertility determinants, focusing on education, income, and policy influences. Link
Fertility rates are declining across most nations due to a complex interplay of economic, social, cultural, and policy-related factors. This global phenomenon, often referred to as the “demographic transition,” has accelerated in recent decades and now affects countries at all levels of development.
One of the primary drivers of declining fertility is the rising cost of raising children. In developed economies, the direct costs of childcare, education, healthcare, and housing have increased substantially relative to incomes [1]. Parents increasingly view children as requiring significant financial investment, particularly as expectations for children’s education and living standards have risen. Additionally, the opportunity cost of having children—especially for women who must often pause or sacrifice careers—has grown as female labor force participation has increased worldwide [2].
Economic uncertainty also plays a crucial role. Young adults facing precarious employment, student debt, and housing unaffordability often delay or forgo childbearing [3]. The shift from agricultural to industrial and service economies has eliminated the economic incentive for large families, as children are no longer needed as farm labor or old-age insurance in most societies [1].
The transformation in women’s roles represents perhaps the most significant social factor. As women gain access to education and career opportunities, they tend to delay childbearing and have fewer children overall [2]. The mean age at first birth has risen dramatically in most countries, which naturally limits the total number of children women can have [4].
Changing values and lifestyle preferences also contribute to declining fertility. Many young adults prioritize personal fulfillment, travel, and career advancement over family formation [5]. The rise of individualism and the weakening of traditional family structures have made childlessness more socially acceptable [3].
The widespread availability of effective contraception has given individuals unprecedented control over their fertility [1]. This allows couples to better align their actual fertility with their desired family size, which has generally decreased. Improved access to family planning services and sexual education has been particularly impactful in developing countries, where fertility rates have fallen rapidly in recent decades [2].
Urbanization strongly correlates with lower fertility rates. Urban living typically involves smaller living spaces, higher costs of living, and different social norms that favor smaller families [4]. Cities also provide better access to education and healthcare, including family planning services.
Education, particularly female education, is one of the strongest predictors of lower fertility. Each additional year of schooling for women is associated with reduced fertility, as education delays marriage and childbearing, increases career opportunities, and enhances knowledge about family planning [2].
Government policies significantly influence fertility decisions. Countries with comprehensive family support policies—including paid parental leave, subsidized childcare, and child allowances—tend to have somewhat higher fertility rates than those without such support [5]. However, even generous welfare states have not been able to reverse fertility decline entirely.
Work-family balance policies are particularly important. Countries where workplace cultures and policies make it difficult to combine career and family tend to have lower fertility rates [3]. The “gender revolution” framework suggests that fertility rates are lowest in societies where women have entered the workforce but still bear primary responsibility for childcare and housework [4].
While fertility decline is nearly universal, its pace and causes vary by region. East Asian countries like South Korea and Japan have some of the world’s lowest fertility rates, driven by intense work cultures, high education costs, and traditional gender roles [5]. In contrast, sub-Saharan Africa still has relatively high fertility, though rates are beginning to decline there as well [1].
The implications of sustained low fertility are profound, including population aging, shrinking workforces, and pressure on social security systems. Some countries have implemented pronatalist policies to encourage births, but their effectiveness remains limited [3].
[1] Roser, M. (2024). “Fertility Rate.” Our World in Data. The author provides comprehensive data showing global fertility decline and discusses economic modernization, urbanization, and the changing economics of childrearing as primary causes. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate
[2] United Nations (2023). “World Population Prospects 2023.” The UN report emphasizes the role of female education, access to contraception, and women’s empowerment in driving fertility decline globally. https://population.un.org/wpp/
[3] Sobotka, T., Beaujouan, É., & Van Bavel, J. (2023). “Demographic Research: Economic Uncertainty and Fertility.” The authors argue that economic uncertainty, changing values, and work-family conflicts are major factors in fertility decline in developed countries. https://www.demographic-research.org/
[4] Goldscheider, F., Bernhardt, E., & Lappegård, T. (2015). “The Gender Revolution: A Framework for Understanding Changing Family and Demographic Behavior.” Population and Development Review. The authors present the gender revolution framework, explaining how changing gender roles affect fertility patterns. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00045.x
[5] OECD (2023). “OECD Family Database.” The OECD provides data showing the relationship between family policies, work-life balance, and fertility rates across member countries, emphasizing policy impacts on fertility decisions. https://www.oecd.org/social/family/database.htm
Short answer: Fertility falls when child survival improves, girls’ schooling expands, contraception becomes widely available, and economies urbanize. In high‑income settings, additional forces—later partnering, high housing/childcare costs, long work hours, persistent gender inequities at home and at work, and prolonged economic uncertainty—push births later and lower than intended. Period fertility rates are further depressed by a timing (tempo) effect as people delay parenthood. Together, these structural, economic, and cultural shifts explain why most countries today have below‑replacement fertility. [1][4][5][6][7][9][10][11][12][13][14]
What’s driving the decline
Regional patterns and nuances
High‑income countries (OECD, East Asia): Below‑replacement fertility is widespread. The combination of postponement, high costs, long work hours, and gender‑equity mismatches explains very low TFRs in East Asia and Southern Europe; Nordic/Western Europe maintain relatively higher (but still sub‑replacement) fertility where gender-egalitarian norms and family policies are stronger—yet even there, fertility has dipped in the 2010s–2020s. [5][9][10][12][13]
Low‑ and middle‑income countries: Fertility is declining almost everywhere, driven by rising child survival, education (especially for girls), urbanization, and family planning. Sub‑Saharan Africa remains higher but is steadily falling; desired family sizes are still larger and the transition has been later/slower than in other regions. [1][2][14]
Common misconceptions
“It’s mainly biology/infertility.” Biological limits matter more as childbearing shifts to older ages, but the bulk of the decline reflects changes in desired family size, partnership timing, and constraints. Assisted reproduction contributes a small share of births (roughly a few percent in many rich countries) and cannot offset late childbearing at the population level. Evidence of declining sperm counts exists but is debated and does not explain cross‑national fertility patterns. [7][15][16]
“Policy can quickly restore replacement fertility.” Family policy can mitigate declines and support intentions, but no single policy has reliably lifted fertility back to 2.1 on a sustained basis; institutions, labor markets, norms, and housing conditions matter jointly and change slowly. [9][13]
Bottom line
Sources
1) United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Key Findings and Advance Tables. View: Documents global fertility decline, links to child survival, education, urbanization, and contraception; shows most people now live in below‑replacement countries. https://population.un.org/wpp/
2) Cleland, J., Bernstein, S., Ezeh, A., Faundes, A., Glasier, A., & Innis, J. (2006). Family planning: the unfinished agenda. The Lancet. View: Argues that modern contraception and family-planning programs reduce unintended fertility and enable smaller desired families as part of the fertility transition. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(06)69480-4/fulltext
3) McDonald, P. (2000). Gender equity in theories of fertility transition. Population and Development Review. View: Proposes that low fertility arises when high gender equity in education/work coexists with low equity in the family/institutions; alignment across spheres supports higher fertility. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00669.x
4) Goldscheider, F., Bernhardt, E., & Lappegård, T. (2015). The gender revolution: A framework for understanding changing family and demographic behavior. Population and Development Review. View: Links the two-stage “gender revolution” (men’s and women’s changing roles at home and work) to fertility and family change. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00045.x
5) Bongaarts, J., & Sobotka, T. (2012). A demographic explanation for low and very low fertility. Demography. View: Shows how delayed childbearing (tempo) depresses period TFR and how incomplete recuperation sustains low fertility. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-012-0196-1
6) Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V., & Philipov, D. (2011). Economic recession and fertility in the developed world. Population and Development Review. View: Reviews how recessions and uncertainty reduce and postpone births in high‑income countries. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00491.x
7) Kearney, M. S., & Levine, P. B. (2022). The Puzzle of Falling U.S. Birth Rates. Journal of Economic Perspectives. View: Synthesizes evidence that later/less marriage, economic uncertainty, and fewer unintended births among the young have lowered U.S. fertility. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.36.1.151
8) Dettling, L. J., & Kearney, M. S. (2014/2019). House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market. Journal of Public Economics. View: Finds rising house prices reduce births among non-owners (young renters), highlighting housing affordability as a fertility constraint. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272719301272
9) OECD (2024). Family Database – Fertility rates and policy context. View: Documents continued decline across OECD, discusses links to housing costs, childcare affordability, long hours, and policy supports. https://www.oecd.org/social/family-database.htm
10) Hellstrand, J., et al. (2020). Not so stable: Fertility decline in the Nordic countries. PNAS. View: Shows recent fertility declines even in high‑support Nordic settings, with postponement and changing norms playing roles. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2000823117
11) Lesthaeghe, R. (2010). The unfolding story of the second demographic transition. Population and Development Review (and related works). View: Explains how value change (individualism, secularization) reshapes union formation and fertility. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25703679
12) Raymo, J. M., Park, H., Xie, Y., & Yeung, W.-J. (2015). Marriage and Family in East Asia: Continuity and Change. Annual Review of Sociology. View: Reviews late/declining marriage, long work hours, and institutional factors behind East Asia’s ultra‑low fertility. https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112428
13) Luci-Greulich, A., & Thévenon, O. (2013). The impact of family policies on fertility in advanced OECD countries. Population and Development Review. View: Finds family policies can raise fertility modestly, especially those supporting work–family balance for both parents. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00608.x
14) Bongaarts, J. (2017). Africa’s unique fertility transition. PNAS. View: Describes slower, later fertility decline in Sub‑Saharan Africa, with roles for education, urbanization, and family planning; desired family size remains higher. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1707277114
15) European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) (2022/2023). ART fact sheets and European IVF monitoring. View: Reports assisted reproduction accounts for a small share of births (a few percent) in many European countries. https://www.eshre.eu/Press-Room/Resources
16) Levine, H., et al. (2023). Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. Human Reproduction Update. View: Reports declines in sperm counts since the 1970s; relevance to population-level fertility remains debated. https://academic.oup.com/humupd/article/29/4/532/6982381
17) Doepke, M., & Zilibotti, F. (2019). Love, Money, and Parenting. Princeton University Press. View: Argues rising returns to human capital increase parental investment intensity and the perceived cost of children, influencing fertility decisions. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691171517/love-money-and-parenting
Fertility rates are declining in the vast majority of nations due to a complex and interconnected web of socioeconomic, cultural, and medical factors. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR)—the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime—has fallen globally from approximately 4.7 in 1950 to 2.3 in 2021, and it is projected to fall below the replacement level of 2.1 by 2050 [1, 2]. This trend, while varying in pace, is evident in high-income and developing countries alike.
The primary drivers of this global demographic shift can be categorized as follows:
This is arguably the most significant driver, often described as part of the “demographic transition model.” As nations develop, fertility rates naturally fall.
In modern economies, the direct and indirect costs of raising children have become a major consideration for prospective parents.
Societal values regarding family, work, and personal fulfillment have undergone a profound transformation.
The ability to control fertility is a fundamental precondition for declining birth rates. While changing desires are crucial, the means to act on those desires are essential.
More recently, broader anxieties about the future have begun to influence reproductive choices.
In conclusion, the decline in fertility rates is not the result of a single cause but rather a convergence of powerful, reinforcing trends. It is a hallmark of modern social and economic development, driven by female empowerment, high costs of living, changing cultural values, and the widespread availability of family planning. While this shift has benefits, it also presents significant long-term challenges for societies, including aging populations, shrinking workforces, and strains on social security and healthcare systems [1, 2].
[https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext)[https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf](https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf)[https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/11/19/growing-share-of-childless-adults-in-u-s-dont-expect-to-ever-have-children/](https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2021/11/19/growing-share-of-childless-adults-in-u-s-dont-expect-to-ever-have-children/)[https://www.aspeninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Aspen-AESG-US-Fertility-Report.pdf](https://www.aspeninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Aspen-AESG-US-Fertility-Report.pdf)[https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220322-the-people-choosing-not-to-have-children-due-to-climate-change](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220322-the-people-choosing-not-to-have-children-due-to-climate-change)[https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS)Error: Grok API error: 500