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Short answer The best evidence available puts the unauthorized-immigrant population of the United States at roughly 10 ½–11 ½ million people in 2023. Because the group is, by definition, hard to count, every figure is an estimate with a margin of error that can easily run into the hundreds of thousands.
Detailed answer
What is being measured
• “Unauthorized,” “undocumented,” or “illegally present” immigrants are foreign-born people living in the United States who (a) entered without inspection or (b) overstayed or otherwise violated the terms of a temporary visa and have not obtained lawful status since.
• The estimates exclude lawful permanent residents (green-card holders), naturalized citizens, refugees and asylees in good standing, and most people in temporary legal categories such as H-1B workers or F-1 students.
How the numbers are derived
• Virtually all researchers use a “residual” method: they start with the total foreign-born population counted in large surveys (mainly the American Community Survey, ACS), subtract all those who can be identified as legally present, then adjust for survey undercount and mortality/ emigration.
• Because the ACS is available only with roughly one-year lags and has sampling error, estimates come out 12–18 months after the fact and have confidence intervals of ±5–10 %. Different groups make slightly different legal/illegal classifications, undercount assumptions, and demographic adjustments, which is why their results do not match exactly.
Latest publicly released point estimates (people present on 1 January unless noted)
• Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics (DHS-OIS, Sept. 2023 release): 11.4 million for 2021 (central estimate, 10.9–11.9 million range). DHS has not yet published a 2022 figure.
• Pew Research Center (Nov. 2023 update): 10.5 million for 2021 (range 10.2–10.8 million). Pew’s 2022/-23 calculations are still in process but its demographers say the total “likely ticked up modestly” in 2022.
• Center for Migration Studies (CMS, Jan. 2024): 11.2 million for 2022.
• Congressional Budget Office (CBO, Dec. 2022 outlook used for budget baselines): about 11.8 million for 2022, rising to 12.3 million by 2024 if border flows continue at 2022 rates.
• Academic “alternative” estimates sometimes circulate—e.g., a 15–16 million figure promoted by FAIR or a higher-end Ivy League study using capture-recapture modelling. Those use different—and controversial—methods; mainstream demographers regard 10–12 million as the credible interval.
Historical perspective
• The unauthorized population grew steadily from the 1980s, peaked at about 12.2 million in 2007, fell during and after the Great Recession, and since roughly 2015 has hovered around 10½–11½ million.
• Mexican nationals once made up nearly 60 % of the total; they were about 39 % in 2021, with faster growth coming from Central America, South America, Asia, and Africa.
• About half of all unauthorized immigrants live in just four states (California, Texas, Florida, and New York). Roughly 4 in 10 entered legally and then overstayed a visa.
Why the number is not skyrocketing despite record border encounters
• Title 42 expulsions (2020-2023) and ongoing removals mean many recent border crossers never achieve a durable U.S. presence and therefore are not yet counted in the ACS-based stock numbers.
• At the same time, hundreds of thousands of long-time residents gain legal status each year through marriage, employment, asylum, adjustment under special legislation, or leave the country voluntarily, offsetting new arrivals.
• As a result, net growth from year to year has been relatively small—on the order of ±200 000 to 300 000—though analysts caution that sustained high border inflows could eventually push the total higher once survey data catch up.
Bottom line
Taking the midpoint of the major demographers’ most recent calculations, the United States in 2023 almost certainly has about 11 million unauthorized immigrants, give or take roughly half a million. Any specific figure outside the 10–12 million band should be treated with skepticism unless new, peer-reviewed data become available.