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How many immigrants are in the United States illegally?
Estimating the number of immigrants in the United States who are residing illegally—often referred to as undocumented immigrants—is a complex task due to the inherent challenges in tracking individuals who, by definition, are not officially documented. However, various studies, government reports, and research organizations have provided estimates based on demographic data, surveys, and statistical modeling. Below is a comprehensive overview of the current understanding of this population as of the most recent data available.
Estimated Number of Undocumented Immigrants
As of the most recent estimates, the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States is approximately 11 million. This figure has been relatively stable over the past decade, with slight fluctuations depending on economic conditions, border enforcement policies, and other factors. The estimate comes from reputable sources such as the Pew Research Center, the Center for Migration Studies, and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
- Pew Research Center (2021 Estimate): Pew, a widely cited source on immigration data, estimated that there were about 10.5 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. as of 2019, the most recent year for which comprehensive data is available. This number represents about 3.2% of the total U.S. population and roughly 23% of the foreign-born population in the country.
- Center for Migration Studies (2020 Estimate): This organization estimated a slightly higher figure of around 10.7 million undocumented immigrants as of 2019, using a methodology that accounts for undercounts in census data and other surveys.
- Department of Homeland Security (2018 Estimate): The DHS, in its most recent report, estimated approximately 11.4 million undocumented immigrants as of 2018. This figure is based on data from border apprehensions, visa overstays, and other administrative records.
Trends Over Time
The number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. peaked at around 12.2 million in 2007, according to Pew Research Center data, before declining during the Great Recession (2008–2009) due to reduced economic opportunities and increased border enforcement. Since then, the population has remained relatively stable, with minor declines attributed to factors such as voluntary departures, deportations, and some individuals gaining legal status through programs like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) or marriage to U.S. citizens.
Demographic Breakdown
Understanding the composition of the undocumented immigrant population provides additional context:
- Country of Origin: The majority of undocumented immigrants come from Latin America, with Mexico accounting for approximately 47% of the total (about 4.9 million as of 2019, per Pew). Other significant countries of origin include El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and India. Notably, the share of undocumented immigrants from Mexico has been declining, while the share from Central America and Asia has increased in recent years.
- Geographic Distribution: Undocumented immigrants are concentrated in certain states, with California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois hosting the largest populations. California alone is home to about 2 million undocumented immigrants, or roughly 20% of the national total.
- Duration of Stay: Contrary to common misconceptions, many undocumented immigrants have lived in the U.S. for a long time. According to Pew, about two-thirds of undocumented immigrants have been in the country for more than a decade.
- Age and Family Structure: A significant portion of this population includes families with mixed immigration status. For example, there are an estimated 4.4 million U.S.-born children (who are citizens) living with at least one undocumented parent.
How Estimates Are Calculated
Since undocumented immigrants are not directly counted in official records, researchers use indirect methods to estimate their numbers:
- Residual Method: This approach compares the total foreign-born population (from census and survey data) with the number of legally documented immigrants (from government records). The difference is assumed to represent the undocumented population, with adjustments for undercounts and other factors.
- Survey Data: Organizations like Pew use data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) and Current Population Survey (CPS), adjusting for underreporting by undocumented individuals.
- Administrative Data: DHS uses data on border crossings, visa overstays, and deportations to model the undocumented population.
Challenges in Estimation
There are several challenges in arriving at precise numbers:
- Undercounting: Undocumented immigrants may avoid participating in surveys or censuses due to fear of deportation or legal consequences, leading to potential underestimates.
- Data Lag: The most recent comprehensive estimates often rely on data that is a few years old, meaning they may not fully capture recent trends, such as changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic or shifts in immigration policy.
- Policy and Enforcement Variability: Changes in border security, deportation rates, and visa policies can affect inflows and outflows of undocumented immigrants, making real-time estimates difficult.
Recent Developments and Context
- Border Encounters: In recent years, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has reported a significant increase in encounters at the southern border, with over 2.4 million encounters in fiscal year 2022. However, not all encounters result in new undocumented immigrants entering the population, as many are expelled under policies like Title 42 (a public health measure used during the COVID-19 pandemic) or are repeat crossers.
- Visa Overstays: A substantial portion of undocumented immigrants—estimated at 40%—enter the U.S. legally on temporary visas (e.g., tourist or student visas) and overstay their authorized period. This group is harder to track than those crossing borders without authorization.
- Policy Impacts: Immigration policies under different administrations can influence the undocumented population. For example, stricter enforcement under the Trump administration (2017–2021) led to increased deportations, while the Biden administration (2021–present) has focused on prioritizing certain categories for enforcement and expanding protections for some groups, such as DACA recipients.
Conclusion
While exact numbers are impossible to determine, the most widely accepted estimate of undocumented immigrants in the United States is around 11 million as of the latest data (2018–2019). This figure is derived from rigorous methodologies employed by organizations like the Pew Research Center, the Center for Migration Studies, and the Department of Homeland Security. The population has remained relatively stable over the past decade, though it is influenced by economic, political, and social factors. Understanding this population requires looking beyond raw numbers to consider their demographic characteristics, contributions to the economy (e.g., labor in agriculture, construction, and services), and the complex policy challenges surrounding immigration reform.
For the most up-to-date information, I recommend consulting primary sources such as the Pew Research Center (pewresearch.org), the Department of Homeland Security (dhs.gov), or the Migration Policy Institute (migrationpolicy.org), as they regularly publish reports on immigration trends. If you have a more specific question or would like data on a particular state or demographic group, I’d be happy to assist further.