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Yes, we appear to be living through a significant crisis of expertise, characterized by declining public trust in institutions, repeated failures by expert communities, and the rise of alternative information sources that challenge traditional authority structures.
The data on declining trust is stark. According to Pew Research, public trust in government has eroded dramatically since the late 1950s, when approximately 75% of Americans trusted the federal government to do the right thing most of the time, compared to much lower levels today [1]. This decline reflects broader skepticism toward expert-led institutions across multiple domains.
The COVID-19 pandemic served as a particularly revealing stress test for expert institutions. Frances Lee and Stephen Macedo argue that institutional failures during the pandemic weren’t just about getting the science wrong, but about how institutions communicated uncertainty, changed guidance, and failed to maintain public confidence during a critical period [2]. These failures had cascading effects on public trust that extended beyond health policy.
The crisis extends well beyond government institutions. In economics, experts have faced repeated forecasting failures and an inability to predict or adequately explain major economic events [3][4]. The field’s struggles with prediction and explanation have undermined confidence in economic expertise, particularly given the high stakes of economic policy decisions.
Scientific research itself faces serious credibility issues. Research fraud cases have led to criminal prosecution in some instances [5], while systematic studies suggest that many published research findings may be false due to statistical power issues, publication bias, and high false discovery rates [6]. These problems strike at the heart of the scientific enterprise’s credibility.
Even prestigious institutions have faced unprecedented challenges. Harvard’s extremely rare decision to revoke tenure from a star business professor highlights how even elite academic institutions are grappling with integrity issues [7].
Traditional media institutions, long considered gatekeepers of reliable information, have also lost significant credibility. A veteran NPR editor’s account of how the organization “lost America’s trust” describes internal ideological capture and departure from journalistic standards [8]. Similarly, analysis of The New York Times suggests the paper has struggled with maintaining its traditional role as an objective news source [9].
This has created space for alternative information sources, including what some critics call “podcast bros” - independent media figures who have gained substantial audiences partly by challenging mainstream expert narratives [10]. While these alternatives have their own limitations, their popularity reflects genuine dissatisfaction with traditional expertise.
The crisis appears to have multiple dimensions. It’s partly about actual expert failures - instances where established authorities got important things wrong with significant consequences [11]. The Iraq War serves as one example of how expert consensus can be both wrong and resistant to correction [12].
However, it’s also about changing information ecosystems and epistemological frameworks. The rise of social media and alternative information sources has democratized access to information while also making it harder to establish shared standards of evidence and reasoning [13].
Some defenders of traditional expertise argue that while institutions have flaws, the alternatives are often worse, and that expert knowledge, despite its limitations, still provides the best available foundation for complex decision-making [14]. They worry that excessive skepticism toward expertise could lead to worse outcomes.
The evidence suggests this is more than a temporary loss of confidence. Multiple warning signs indicate deeper structural problems in how expert institutions operate, communicate, and maintain accountability [15]. The convergence of failures across different domains - government, academia, media, and professional fields - suggests systemic rather than isolated issues.
The crisis also reflects changing expectations about transparency, accountability, and participation in knowledge production. Public skepticism isn’t just about expert failures but also about perceived elite insularity and lack of responsiveness to legitimate concerns from non-experts [16].
While expertise itself remains valuable and necessary for navigating complex modern challenges, the institutions and social structures that have traditionally housed and legitimized expertise are indeed in crisis. This creates both dangers - such as the rejection of valuable knowledge - and opportunities for developing more robust, accountable, and trustworthy systems of expertise. The challenge moving forward is distinguishing between necessary reforms and destructive anti-intellectualism while rebuilding institutional credibility through better performance and accountability.
[1] Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 - Pew Research Center - Documents the dramatic decline in public trust in government institutions over decades.
[2] Frances Lee & Stephen Macedo on Why Institutions Failed During COVID - Yascha Mounk (Substack) - Analyzes how institutional communication failures during the pandemic damaged public trust.
[3] The failure of economists… - Not On Your Team (Substack) - Critiques the economics profession’s predictive failures and methodological problems.
[4] Economists don’t know what’s going on - The Economist - Acknowledges limitations in economic expertise and forecasting abilities.
[5] Scientific research fraud and criminal prosecution - Vox - Reports on cases where research misconduct has reached the level of criminal prosecution.
[6] Are most published research findings false? Trends in statistical power, publication selection bias, and the false discovery rate in psychology (1975-2017) - NCBI/PMC - Provides empirical evidence for widespread problems in research reliability and validity.
[7] In extremely rare move, Harvard revokes tenure and cuts ties with star business professor - WGBH News - Reports on unprecedented action by elite institution against tenured faculty.
[8] I’ve Been at NPR for 25 Years. Here’s How We Lost America’s Trust. - The Free Press - Insider account of how ideological capture undermined journalistic credibility.
[9] When the New York Times lost its way - The Economist - Analysis of how prestigious media institutions have departed from traditional standards.
[10] Podcast Bros and Brain Rot - Nathan Cofnas (Substack) - Critical analysis of alternative media figures who challenge mainstream expertise.
[11] Elite failures and populist backlash - Conspicuous Cognition (Substack) - Connects expert failures to broader political and social reactions.
[12] The Wrong Lessons Of Iraq - The Last Psychiatrist - Uses Iraq War as case study of expert consensus failure and resistance to correction.
[13] The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium - Google Books - Analyzes how information technology has disrupted traditional authority structures.
[14] In Defence of Non-Experts - Aporia Magazine - Argues for the legitimacy of non-expert perspectives while acknowledging the value of expertise.
[15] The Ten Warning Signs - The Honest Broker (Substack) - Identifies structural problems in expert institutions and knowledge production.
[16] Can You Trust Anybody? - The Wall Street Journal - Examines broader questions of trust and credibility across different types of authorities and information sources.