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Researchers agree on the basic facts: the United States recorded roughly 4,900 more homicides in 2020 than in 2019, a year-over-year increase of about 29-30 %—the largest jump ever reported by the FBI’s modern crime-tracking system [2]. Why it happened, however, is still being debated. The evidence points to a confluence of forces rather than a single trigger.
Pandemic-related social and institutional disruption
• The COVID-19 pandemic upended daily routines, closed schools, cut off social services, and produced sudden unemployment. Routine-activity theory predicts that when conventional guardianship breaks down and large numbers of (often young) people are idle, violent conflicts are more likely to occur [2] [5].
• Court systems, probation offices, and violence-intervention programs were partially shuttered, reducing swift sanctions and mediation that normally prevent retaliatory shootings [5].
• Jails and prisons released tens of thousands of inmates to limit viral spread, increasing the pool of people in the community with prior violent-crime histories, though the precise contribution of these releases remains uncertain [1] [5].
A legitimacy crisis and “de-policing” after the George Floyd protests
• The sharpest rise in gun violence began in late May 2020, immediately after the mass protests following George Floyd’s murder, not at the start of the pandemic. Cities that experienced the most intense protests also experienced the biggest spikes in homicide, while arrests for violent crime and for illegal gun possession simultaneously fell, suggesting reduced proactive policing (“Ferguson effect 2.0”) [4].
• Surveys and body-camera analyses show officers pulled back from discretionary stops and street encounters, while calls for service rose—a mismatch that weakened deterrence [1] [4].
• An academic study finds resignations in large police agencies jumped 24 % and retirements 14 % in the 15 months after the summer of 2020, exacerbating staffing shortages [6].
Increased firearm carrying and lethal dispute resolution
• Roughly 20 million firearms were purchased in 2020, the highest annual total on record. While one nationwide study could not tie the volume of legal gun sales to homicide increases at the state level [7], other researchers argue that the sudden influx of weapons made everyday disputes more likely to turn deadly once conflict levels had already risen [2] [5].
Concentration of violence in specific neighborhoods and demographic groups
• The homicide surge was overwhelmingly gun-driven and concentrated in disadvantaged, predominantly Black neighborhoods that were already experiencing the highest levels of violence, magnifying pre-existing structural inequities [3] [5].
Other policy and criminal-justice changes
• Bail-reform laws, progressive prosecution policies, and early-release initiatives were implemented in several large jurisdictions before 2020. Commentators from the Heritage Foundation and the Manhattan Institute argue these changes lowered the costs of offending and contributed to rising violence [1] [4]. Empirical confirmation remains mixed; the Brennan Center notes many cities without such reforms experienced comparable spikes, implying they are not a universal explanation [5].
Synthesis:
No single factor alone can explain a 30 % nationwide jump. The weight of the evidence suggests that the pandemic created the combustible social conditions, the post-Floyd legitimacy crisis weakened the primary formal mechanism of deterrence (policing), and the ready availability of firearms increased the lethality of conflicts that did occur. Where all three overlapped—disinvested neighborhoods that lost both social supports and effective policing—violence rose the most. Scholars caution that determining precise causal weights will require further multivariate research, but the consensus is that 2020’s surge was the product of multiple, interacting shocks rather than a long-term reversal of the overall two-decade decline in violent crime.
Sources
[1] Heritage Foundation – Stimson & Walters argue that anti-police rhetoric, “defund” proposals, bail reform, and progressive prosecutors produced police pullbacks and emboldened offenders. https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/commentary/what-caused-last-years-spike-violent-crime
[2] Pew Research Center – Summarizes FBI data and lists leading hypotheses (pandemic dislocation, policing changes after George Floyd, more guns) while stressing that definitive causal proof is still lacking. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/10/27/what-we-know-about-the-increase-in-u-s-murders-in-2020/
[3] Patterns in Humanity – Data analysis shows homicide spike concentrated in already high-crime neighborhoods; links increases to broader socioeconomic stressors. https://inquisitivebird.xyz/p/crime-in-the-usa
[4] Manhattan Institute – Finds the timing of the spike lines up with late-May protests; highlights large drops in arrests and proactive policing as key drivers. https://manhattan.institute/article/breaking-down-the-2020-homicide-spike
[5] Brennan Center for Justice – Emphasizes pandemic disruptions, notes heterogeneity across cities, and cautions against attributing rises solely to reform policies or gun purchases. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/myths-and-realities-understanding-recent-trends-violent-crime
[6] Criminology & Public Policy – Nix et al., “Elevated Police Turnover Following the Summer of George Floyd,” documents significant increases in resignations/retirements that reduced police capacity. https://jnix.netlify.app/publication/42-cpp-turnover/
[7] Axios – Coverage of a Boston Children’s Hospital study finding no clear statistical link between state-level gun-purchasing spikes and murder increases, underscoring the multifactorial nature of the surge. https://www.axios.com/2021/07/12/gun-violence-rise-gun-purchases
[8] MPR News – Reports a criminological study attributing the 2020 homicide rise to the combined impact of pandemic strain and protest-related policing changes. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/02/01/study-killings-surge-in-2020-as-pandemic-protests-play-roles