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What caused the crime spike in 2020 in the United States?

The spike in crime, particularly homicides, in the United States in 2020 was an unprecedented event for which there is no single, universally accepted cause. Instead, researchers and analysts point to a combination of interconnected factors that created a “perfect storm” of conditions conducive to violence [5, 8]. The primary drivers discussed in the provided sources are the profound societal disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and a crisis in policing following the murder of George Floyd and the subsequent protests [1, 4, 8].

Key contributing factors include:

1. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Societal Disruption The pandemic dramatically altered daily life and strained the social fabric in ways that likely contributed to the rise in violence.

• Disruption of Social Services: Lockdowns and social distancing measures closed schools, community centers, and youth programs. This eliminated crucial support structures and positive outlets for at-risk individuals [5, 8]. The pandemic also severely hampered the work of violence interrupter programs and other community-based anti-violence initiatives [5].
• Economic and Social Strain: The pandemic triggered widespread job losses, financial instability, and food and housing insecurity. These stressors, combined with the general anxiety and social isolation of the period, are known risk factors for violence [2, 5].
• Changes in Daily Routines: With public spaces emptied and institutions closed, there were fewer “eyes on the street,” potentially emboldening criminal activity. The closure of the court system also created a backlog of cases, hindering the justice system’s ability to function effectively [8].

2. A Crisis in Policing and Public Trust The murder of George Floyd in May 2020 and the nationwide protests that followed had a profound impact on policing and community relations.

• The “Minneapolis Effect” and De-Policing: Several sources argue that the intense backlash against law enforcement led to a phenomenon some call the “Minneapolis Effect” (a successor to the “Ferguson Effect”) [1, 4]. This theory posits that police officers, facing intense scrutiny, demoralization, and threats of violence or legal action, pulled back from proactive policing. This reduction in traffic stops, pedestrian checks, and other preventative enforcement measures created a vacuum that criminals may have exploited [1, 4].
• Erosion of Police Legitimacy: The protests and police response severely damaged trust between communities and law enforcement, particularly in marginalized neighborhoods [2, 5]. When police legitimacy is low, residents may be less willing to cooperate with investigations or report crimes, making it more difficult to solve cases and hold offenders accountable [8].
• Elevated Police Turnover: The period following the summer of 2020 saw a documented increase in police officer resignations and retirements. This loss of experienced officers and general turmoil within police departments may have degraded their operational capacity [6].

3. The Role of Firearms 2020 saw a record number of firearm purchases, and the role of guns in the violence spike is a subject of debate.

• Increased Gun Sales: The confluence of the pandemic, social unrest, and political uncertainty led millions of Americans to purchase firearms, many for the first time [2].
• Debated Link to Homicides: While the increased prevalence of guns is a concern, some research has found no clear statistical link between the surge in legal gun sales and the rise in homicides. One study noted that states with the largest increases in gun sales did not necessarily have the largest increases in murder rates [7]. However, other analyses suggest that the widespread availability of guns—both legal and illegal—makes violent encounters more likely to become lethal [5].

Conclusion The 2020 crime spike was not driven by a single cause but rather by a convergence of historic events. The pandemic destabilized society by closing institutions, straining social services, and causing immense economic and psychological stress. Simultaneously, the crisis in policing following the murder of George Floyd led to a breakdown in police-community trust and a significant shift in policing practices [8]. While some analysts emphasize the “de-policing” effect [1, 4] and others focus more on the pandemic’s social upheaval [5], most agree that these factors were deeply intertwined and collectively contributed to the deadliest year in the United States in decades [2, 3].

Sources

1. What Caused Last Year’s Spike in Violent Crime? – The Heritage Foundation (https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/commentary/what-caused-last-years-spike-violent-crime)
   • This conservative think tank argues that the primary cause of the 2020 crime spike was a “Minneapolis Effect,” where police engaged in less proactive enforcement due to demoralization and public hostility following the George Floyd protests. It dismisses the pandemic as a primary cause.
2. What We Know About the Increase in U.S. Murders in 2020 – Pew Research Center (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/10/27/what-we-know-about-the-increase-in-u-s-murders-in-2020/)
   • This non-partisan research center provides a data-focused overview, documenting the nearly 30% increase in murders. It lists several potential explanations offered by experts, including the effects of the pandemic, changes in policing, and increased gun sales, without concluding which was the primary driver.
3. Crime in the USA – Patterns in Humanity (https://inquisitivebird.xyz/p/crime-in-the-usa)
   • This data analysis blog places the 2020 crime spike in a long-term historical context, showing that while the single-year increase was dramatic, overall crime rates remain significantly lower than their peaks in the early 1990s. It focuses on visualizing the data rather than assigning a specific cause.
4. Breaking Down the 2020 Homicide Spike – Manhattan Institute (https://manhattan.institute/article/breaking-down-the-2020-homicide-spike)
   • This conservative-leaning think tank strongly attributes the homicide spike to a pullback in proactive policing and a crisis of police legitimacy following the George Floyd protests. It argues against explanations rooted in the pandemic, poverty, or gun sales.
5. Myths and Realities: Understanding Recent Trends in Violent Crime – Brennan Center for Justice (https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/myths-and-realities-understanding-recent-trends-violent-crime)
   • This left-leaning public policy institute argues that there is no single cause for the crime spike. It emphasizes a combination of factors, including the profound social and economic disruption of the pandemic, the increased prevalence of firearms, and the erosion of police legitimacy and community trust.
6. Elevated Police Turnover Following the Summer of George Floyd – Criminology & Public Policy (https://jnix.netlify.app/publication/42-cpp-turnover/)
   • This academic article presents empirical research demonstrating that police resignations and retirements increased significantly in the months following the George Floyd protests, providing evidence for the theory that a shift in policing (or “de-policing”) occurred during this period.
7. Study: No Clear Link Between Gun Sales Spike and Murder Rise – Axios (https://www.axios.com/2021/07/12/gun-violence-rise-gun-purchases)
   • This news article reports on a specific academic study from the University of California, Davis. The study found no clear statistical evidence that the record surge in legal gun purchases in 2020 was directly associated with the rise in homicides that year.
8. Study: Killings Surge in 2020 as Pandemic, Protests Play Roles – MPR News (https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/02/01/study-killings-surge-in-2020-as-pandemic-protests-play-roles)
   • This article reports on a study by the National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice. The study concludes that the homicide spike was likely caused by a combination of factors, including the “historic convergence” of the COVID-19 pandemic and the mass protests against police brutality.